An independent report published today found there is a degree of  ‘uncertainty’ around the benefits of the high speed rail project the government is proposing (HS2).
The report, written by Oxera and commissioned by the Transport Select Committee of the UK House of Commons, also found there is ‘relatively little evidence presented’ surrounding the socio-economic and regional impacts of the project.
The report was provided to inform the questioning by the Committee Members of those who have prepared the case during its High Speed Rail—Investing in Britain’s Future inquiry.
Covering an assessment of the scheme benefits, costs, the approach to appraisal and the appropriate comparator, this report sets out a series of questions which evidence suggests might be worthwhile for the MPs to pose to witnesses during the inquiry.
As requested by the Committee, Oxera’s review looked at the economic case only, as opposed to the full business case being considered as part of the consultation. Even within the economic case, a new cost–benefit analysis was outside the scope of the report.
Oxera’s review has highlighted that there are several aspects to the economic case for high-speed rail, including monetised and non-monetised elements.
The monetised estimates are subject to uncertainty— the sensitivities published by HS2 Ltd for HS2 show a range of 0.7–2.7 for the benefit–cost ratio excluding the wider economic impacts, and this only looks at each sensitivity in isolation.
The overall balance of the non-monetised impacts—which include landscape, carbon and changes in land use—is difficult to ascertain, but is likely to become more apparent as the understanding of the impacts improves over time, and as HS2 Ltd adjusts the appraisal to reflect the DfT’s revised approach to such assessments.
London was likely to benefit from HS2 ‘possibly at the expense of less service-oriented cities on the line’, the report said.
The largest component of the monetised estimated benefits of high speed rail comes from the time savings of business travellers (for HS2 these are £5.7 billion out of the £20.6 billion of total benefits, or 28%, excluding the reliability and wait time components).
The report said it is ‘unclear how HS2 Ltd has calculated the cost savings that it is intending to make as a result of lower levels of train service being required on the conventional network’.
Overall, the case for the High Speed Rail programme seems to depend on whether and when the capacity is needed, the selection of the best value-for-money approach to delivering that capacity, the degree of uncertainty around the monetised benefits and costs of the preferred options, and judgements on the balance of evidence relating to non-monetised items, such as the environment and regeneration impacts (which are likely to be substantive in their own right, but are not currently fully set out in the Government’s assessment).
It is hoped that this high-level independent review will contribute to the ongoing policy debate, and support the policy-makers in the High Speed Rail programme inquiry.
It’s an interesting view that the business case has under-estimated people’s ability to use travelling time productively thanks to laptops and wi-fi. But there are several other technological developments that the high-speed enthusiasts are overlooking. Services like Skype, for instance, are revolutionising the way we work. Web-based video conferencing is growing at a phenomenal rate – ditto live streaming of events such as AGMs, press conferences, lectures and training sessions over the internet. Futurologists predict that before long you’ll even be able to shake hands with someone on the other side of the world without leaving your home or office. The world of work has changed dramatically over the past 20 years ago; who knows what it’ll be like in 2030? One thing’s for certain: expensive and time-consuming journeys to meetings will become far less necessary than they are today. So why spend tens of billions of pounds we simply can’t afford, ripping up more precious countryside, to build something that’ll be out of date before it’s up and running?